It is odd to be writing a headline such as the one above, especially since the San Carlos market has had a relatively healthy year. Aided by low inventory, low interest rates, and a surplus of San Carlos buyers, our market has weathered the national housing storm quite well. Nonetheless, it is a question that I receive on a consistent basis. The short answer to the headline is….I don’t know. Anyone who is going to tell you otherwise either has a crystal ball or is just blowing smoke. So, unless you are good friends with Alan Greenspan or Ben Bernanke, please keep reading…
San Carlos is certainly not immune from housing downturns. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, the one guideline that seems to ring true is that investing in San Carlos for the long haul will pay off. Normally, economic indicators and inventory snapshots can give us some idea of a short range housing forecast. However, we are dealing with some highly volatile issues on the national level which could have enough of an impact locally to alter our market. The credit market implosion, sky rocketing oil costs, an unpopular war, the collapse of financial giants such a Lehman Brothers, a national housing downturn and we are on the brink of an incredibly important national election….just to list a few. The uncertainty created by these issues has leveled out what was once a seller friendly market. Unlike other areas of the Bay Area, the leveling of our market has not been due to sub-prime loans or a slumping economy. The leveling of our market has been created by indirect factors such as tougher financing guidelines by banks and apprehension by buyers over a fear that San Carlos could take a hit in the future.
While I cannot state with any certainty where the San Carlos market may be headed, I can give you my best guess. San Carlos will most likely continue to experience enough of the national issues to cause a consistent leveling of our market. At the same time, the San Carlos market will continue to receive boosts in the form of low inventory, a relatively stable, local economy and a continued surplus of buyers trying to get into San Carlos. The two will most likely continue to cancel each other out and San Carlos will remain a relatively stable market for the next 18 months.
Spot-on analysis. Well thought out. This is why I read your blog. Keep up the good work!